Blue-collar worker shortages are much talked about these days, even making the pages of publications like The New Yorker that aren’t exactly known for covering the workforce. The shortages threaten the success of federal investments like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Infrastructure Law.

But even so, researchers at Georgetown University were surprised to find just how extreme the situation is in America’s cities. In an analysis released today, they looked at how many graduates colleges and other education providers were producing with middle-skill credentials—certificates and associate degrees—aligned with high-paying jobs in 55 metros with at least 1M residents.

  • In 52 of the 55, the production of credentials for high-paying blue-collar jobs is falling short—often far short—of what is needed to keep up with local demand.
  • The current supply would only meet 13% of the projected demand through 2032, for a shortfall of almost 360K credentials.

These are jobs like first-line supervisors in production and operations; industrial machinery mechanics; and construction equipment operators. And cities like Washington, D.C., Dallas, and Boston face the most severe shoftfalls relative to demand.

“We hear a lot about blue-collar worker shortages, but the size of the anticipated shortage in high-paying middle-skills blue-collar occupations is startling,” says Zach Mabel, lead author of the study and director of research at Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW).

Beyond Blue-Collar Jobs

The new report is part of a larger body of work at CEW looking at the mismatch between jobs and middle-skill credentials across the country. A previous study found that at least 50% of certificates and associate degrees produced today would need to be in different fields in order to align supply with available jobs.

The Details: The new study zeroes in on high-paying jobs in large metros. Mabel and his co-authors define high-paying middle-skills occupations as those in which more than half of early-career (ages 18–35) workers have a job with annual earnings of more than $53K. 

  • Early on, these jobs typically pay more than young workers with a bachelor’s make—and people in these middle-skill jobs also tend to see significant earnings growth over their career.
  • By mid-career, median annual pay hits $80K.

Just over 100 jobs met that definition, and they fell into five occupational groups: blue-collar, healthcare, management, protective services, and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).

Shortfalls: Middle-skill shortfalls are less extreme, but still pronounced beyond blue-collar roles.

  • More than two-thirds of the metro areas studied will experience shortfalls in middle-skill credentials aligned with high-paying jobs in management occupations (sales managers, project management specialists) and protective services (police officers, firefighters).
  • STEM credentials, however, are relatively well-aligned, and middle-skill healthcare credentials are actually oversupplied in many metros as hospital systems and other providers increasingly prefer nurses with bachelor’s degrees.

Why the Gap?

More students at community colleges and other middle-skill providers need to be directed to programs that align with high-paying jobs, Mabel says. But even so, simply not enough students are entering certificate and associate degree programs that put them on a path to middle-skill jobs.

Stigma, especially around the trades, plays a role, he says. And many community colleges also have limited capacity in STEM and trades programs aligned with high-paying jobs, as they struggle with the costs of building labs, buying and maintaining state-of-the-art equipment, and competing with industry for qualified instructors.

A Herculean Task: The supply-demand gap is so large in many metros, Mabel says, that existing institutions likely can’t fill the gap.

  • In places with credential shortfalls around high-paying management, protective services, or blue-collar jobs, more than half of the existing providers would need to double their production in order to meet local demand.
  • And in blue-collar fields specifically, 91% of providers would need to at least double the number of credentials they’re producing.

They likely can’t do that, Mabel says, so new players will need to pick up the slack. 

The Kicker: “More providers—new institutions and existing four-year institutions—likely need to enter the market to eliminate credential shortages in programs aligned with high-paying occupations in many of the largest U.S. metro areas.”