Jobs were scarce in Dayton, Ohio, after the Great Recession. When unemployment crested to nearly 13% in 2010, the region had just 12 open jobs for every 101 unemployed residents.

Now Dayton faces the opposite challenge, with almost twice as many unfilled jobs as unemployed residents—a labor shortage that’s conservatively projected to reach 59K open positions by 2030. That scenario would mean an estimated $6B or 6% hit to the regional GDP.

The Employers’ Workforce Coalition has been sounding the alarm about the potential workforce crisis while also tapping a broad range of partners to develop creative solutions for training and recruiting workers.

“We have to realize some blunt realities,” says Joe Sciabica, the coalition’s executive director. “I don’t believe employers have woken up to this yet.”

Dayton’s workforce challenges aren’t unique in Ohio or the broader region. At the statewide level, JobsOhio recently rolled out a relocation incentive that offers employers in targeted industries across the state $15K for each qualifying out-of-state STEM or technical hire they bring to Ohio.

However, the metro area of 815K residents has long been a national bellwether. What happens in Dayton over the next few years could be a fair representation of how much of the industrial heartland fares in trying to keep pace with a rapidly transforming labor market. (I grew up in a Dayton suburb, BTW.)

The region has an aging population and declining labor-force participation that roughly mirrors the 62.3% national rate, an indicator where the U.S. lags and is sliding compared to other wealthy countries, alarming policymakers on both sides of the aisle. 

Immigration policy also isn’t helping the Dayton region’s workforce challenge, which includes Springfield, say Sciabica and many other observers.

However, much of the projected talent gap is due to recent success, including more than $7B in capital investment during the last three years. For example, GM is spending nearly $1B to expand a diesel engine plant while Joby Aviation says it will spend up to $500M on an aircraft production facility that could create up to 2K jobs.

Overcoming the stigma of jobs in manufacturing remains a challenge. The Employers’ Workforce Coalition is trying to shine a light on career opportunities in the sector, says Sciabica, who previously held leadership roles across U.S. Air Force engineering and technical management. And he stresses that those careers are far better than gig economy jobs.

Homegrown talent will be the biggest part of the solution to the 59K labor gap. So the coalition, which was convened two years ago by the Dayton Foundation, is working on strategies to increase worker retention and labor participation. That includes serving as a concierge—a regional amplifier and connector—for projects that boost upskilling, apprenticeships, work-based learning, career coaching, and short-term credential production.

“It’s about building a constituency of employers who are supportive,” says Dan Foley, a former county commissioner who is a coalition fellow.

The group has plenty to build on, Foley and Sciabica say. For example, they point to United Grinding’s apprenticeship program and Sinclair Community College’s extensive and nationally recognized approach to correctional education.

Yet the group also is breaking new ground, including efforts to recruit workers from outside the state. One of the most promising projects has begun placing nurses from Puerto Rico in local hospitals. The coalition has worked to help the nurses get settled in Dayton and plans to ramp up the program.

A full-court press is needed to make a dent in the talent gap, which soon could lead to ripple effects across Dayton. For example, Sciabica and other observers predict that poaching of employees will be an increasing problem for the region and the state, one that will hit smaller firms the hardest. 

Getting HR divisions to recognize the scope of the challenge is a big part of the coalition’s work.

The Kicker: “They have been forever in a period of abundance,” Sciabica says. “It’s going to be a labor war for sure.”