The nature of work is shifting faster than ever. The dramatic and ongoing policy changes from Washington, D.C., represent the latest acceleration in the creation and destruction of jobs. But industry shifts and AI’s rapid rise have already transformed job demand over the past five years—and the pace of change is only accelerating. To keep up, both workers and employers must adapt or risk being left behind.
The first shock to the system was the pandemic. Many Americans were already considering a career change to a different industry before it hit: before 2019, 34% of workers reported having changed industries in the prior two years. By November 2024, 56% of job seekers were eager to switch industries. Jobs in healthcare, retail, logistics, and white-collar office jobs had changed—both in which roles were growing or shrinking, and also where and the way in which those jobs were done.
The maturation of AI was the next massive accelerator. Jobs were created and destroyed almost immediately after ChatGPT’s release in late 2022. For example, in a short period of time AI all but replaced the role of the line software developer, whose job it is to write code. AI was able to write the code faster and more effectively, even if that code needed review by a senior engineer. The number of job postings for software developers on Indeed dropped by 65% by the end of 2023, falling by another 10% last year. And software development is just the beginning. A wide range of roles can or will quickly be replaced with AI, including inside sales representatives, customer service representatives, junior lawyers, junior accountants, and physicians whose focus is diagnosis.
At Arena Analytics, a company spun out of Catalyte in 2016, we have seen that workers are increasingly interested in industries that are more immune to the near-term disruption of artificial intelligence. Among workers with some technical skills, including but not exclusive to healthcare skills, we have seen a steady increase in interest in moving into non-hospital healthcare roles over the last two years. On Arena’s platform, where several hundred thousand people per year apply for jobs in non-hospital healthcare roles, we have seen a rapid jump from 32% of applicants having no prior experience in that industry in 2023 to 51% this year.
And now, the Trump administration is introducing fundamental transformations to our economy that will be a further step shift in the jobs that are created and the jobs that are destroyed. It seems safe to assume that tariffs will be a more prominent feature of our international economic landscape than they were in 2024. The kinds of impacts this change might drive include more jobs in domestic manufacturing and energy production, fewer jobs in logistics and ports, and fewer jobs in agriculture.
At the same time, for industries heavily reliant on immigrant talent, there will be more job openings in roles like nursing and hospitality and caregiving. And in the medium term, if federal funding for research declines, it is likely that there will be a greater need for healthcare employees to care for a sicker population—which will further increase the need for roles like nursing.
For workers navigating career transitions, two key barriers stand in the way: skills and information. Without the right skills, candidates are unable to fill roles that require those skills. And even when they do, a lack of information—about available jobs, employer needs, or career pathways—can keep them from making successful transitions.
For employers, decisions are typically based on prior work and educational experience. As a result, if someone doesn’t have credentials that resemble those of past applicants or more junior experience in a similar role, an employer will struggle to determine whether they will thrive in the job. If the information and instincts employers use to make decisions are based on prior experience, how do employers handle a world where change has accelerated? How do employers handle a world where prior experience may not be as good a basis for a decision as in a previous generation?
AI can be part of the solution to these challenges. Arena is an example of how the technology is being applied to the labor market, to help predict which roles will be a good fit for job seekers. Nearly 20% of those working in and around healthcare in the U.S. have either used or applied for a job through the platform, which helps connect people with opportunities they might not have otherwise considered—roles where they are likely to thrive, that are close to home, and are across a range of industries. And Arena is just one of many companies using these technologies to improve how workforces operate.
On average, job seekers on Arena’s platform discover 2.8 additional roles that align with their skills and interests. Other companies in the space likely are seeing similar results, though few have shared this kind of data publicly so far. Beyond job matching, Arena also provides insights on pay optimization, training opportunities, and workforce planning—helping individuals and organizations adapt to a rapidly changing labor market. Other companies provide insights into sources of talent to improve talent acquisition strategies, apprenticeship platforms, and a range of other solutions—all made increasingly possible by the rapid movement of technology.
The pace of change in the market for jobs and talent is not slowing—it is accelerating. To ensure workers can transition smoothly from shrinking industries to growing ones, we must break down the barriers that make these moves so challenging.
The power of AI technologies allows us to reduce the friction that prevents the best person from ending up in the best role and gaining the right skills quickly, easily, and effectively. If more Americans can use their talents to move into jobs where they can make progressively more money and be progressively happier, we can unlock massive growth in the economy as a whole, and we can strengthen our institutions and our democracy.
Michael Rosenbaum is the founder and CEO of Arena Analytics, which applies AI to labor markets.