The headlines are dominated by doom and gloom about the challenging environment for recent college graduates, with artificial intelligence being pinpointed as the culprit. The truth is more complex—and more familiar. 

Young workers are in fact facing a challenging market and AI, or at least speculation over how AI may impact the workforce, is a part of the puzzle. It is easy to blame AI for today’s job market pain. But that story is incomplete—and risks creating an overly specific set of solutions. 

Over the past year, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the unemployment rate for younger college grads has averaged 6.5%, roughly in line with where it was in 2015.  While this is higher than the general unemployment rate of 4.2%, this is not significantly worse for this population than previous downturns. That tells us this moment is not unprecedented and that in fact, we have seen worse in our lifetimes. Although the number has started to improve in recent months, the road to full recovery is likely to stretch for years.

When you dig deeper into the data, it is also clear that college graduates are not the only group to note. 

  • High school graduates in their late teens (ages 18-19) with no college education have also experienced a sharp increase in unemployment, reaching 15.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the span of 2.5 years.
  • And 20-24 year olds with associate degrees—who have been relatively insulated until recently—have experienced an increase of 1 percentage point in their unemployment rate over the past year, albeit to a level (4.9%) that makes them fare wildly better than their peers. 

The data shows that this crisis is not just about four-year degrees. It is a broader disruption hitting young workers across all levels of educational attainment. 

While there is growing evidence that AI is playing a role here, it is important that we not incorrectly attribute these numbers solely to AI. The widespread impact indicates that we are seeing the return of a familiar cycle: a cyclical slowdown in hiring, coupled with low role turnover, is leading young people to bear the brunt of labor market cooling. 

Regardless of what the cooling agent is, the question becomes: How do we help young people succeed in an environment where hiring is slowing across the board? 

In our conversations with leading chief human resource officers across the country—in industries as different as healthcare, retail, and financial services—we consistently hear the same thing: hiring is slowing, not because of AI panic, but because businesses are bracing for uncertainty. In these moments, it is often early-career talent that gets left behind. 

We cannot let the noise around AI distract us from what America’s workforce needs and what will actually help companies stay steady and thrive amidst the uncertainty. AI is not a strategy—it is a tool. Like any tool, it only delivers value in the hands of people enabled with the skills to use it. 

Instead of debating whether AI or the economy is to blame, we must instead focus on how we help workers at all career stages adapt, no matter the cause of disruption.

From industrialization to digitization, the most successful workers—and companies—have always been those that can adapt, learn, and move forward. That will not change in the AI era. Whether you are starting your second job or your 22nd job, success in the future will come down to one thing: adaptability.

Moving forward, there is not going to be a one-size-fits all solution that guarantees job security. Titles and tenures won’t go away entirely, but many workers and employers will place value on who can learn, evolve, and apply skills in new contexts.  

Resilient careers will be built on a blend of durable and technical skills. Collaboration, critical thinking, and adaptability will be as essential in the second quarter of the 21st century as digital fluency was in the first. For some fields, a degree may still be the right path, but that path will still require a commitment to continuous learning, often in short-form ways, well beyond graduation day.

In this moment of rapid transformation, the adaptability of a company’s workforce will directly determine its future success. The World Economic Forum, estimates that 39% of worker’s core skills are expected to be disrupted in the next five years—and 60% of workers will need reskilling by 2027. Yet only half of workers are seen to have access to adequate training opportunities today. 

Employers must start cultivating resilient skills that can meet this moment—and the next. And for employees, that means embracing a mindset of continuous learning, backed by the coaching, tools, and support systems that make it possible.

We recently had the chance to hear from a Guild learner who was promoted from a customer service position into a management role at one of our customers. What made the leap possible? It was not just the credential. It was the clarity about what came next. The coaching to stay accountable. And the confidence to make the leap. 

That is what adaptability looks like—when it is recognized, nurtured, and equipped to succeed.

The challenge ahead will not be solved with platitudes or panic. It will require leadership and nimble, human-centered investment.

If we repeat past mistakes—investing in technology without investing in people—the consequences will be deep. Entire communities will be left behind. And the businesses that serve them will be left vulnerable.

At a time when younger generations are questioning whether there is a place for them in the workforce, employers have a powerful opportunity: to offer clearly defined pathways to resilient, high-wage roles. To build systems that see talent already inside the organization. And to ensure those systems are equipped to support workers as their careers evolve.

Growth will not be defined by where someone started—but by how they grow. And the companies that thrive will be the ones that help them do it.

Guy Berger is workforce economist in residence at Guild. Bijal Shah is CEO of Guild, a public benefit corporation that provides education, skilling, and talent mobility solutions for some of America’s largest employers.